I am reprinting the full commentary on the poll here:
Opposition Declines
By ERICA WERNER
and DENNIS JUNIUS
WASHINGTON (AP)
— More than 6 in 10 Americans now favor allowing illegal immigrants to eventually
become U.S. citizens, a major increase in support driven by a turnaround in
Republicans’ opinions after the 2012 elections.
The finding, in
a new Associated Press-GfK poll, comes as the Republican Party seeks to
increase its meager support among Latino voters, who turned out in large
numbers to help-re-elect President Barack Obama in November.
Emboldened by
the overwhelming Hispanic backing and by shifting attitudes on immigration,
Obama has made overhauling laws about who can legally live in the U.S. a
centerpiece of his second-term agenda. In the coming weeks, he’s expected to
aggressively push for ways to create an eventual pathway to citizenship for the
estimated 11 million illegal immigrants already in this country.
The poll
results suggest that the public overall, not just Hispanics, will back his
efforts. Sixty-two percent of Americans now favor providing a way for illegal
immigrants in the U.S. to become citizens, an increase from just 50 percent in
the summer of 2010, the last time the AP polled on the question.
In an even
earlier poll, in 2009, some 47 percent supported a pathway to citizenship for
illegal immigrants.
Further
boosting the president on the issue, Democrats have opened a 41 percent to 34
percent advantage as the party more trusted to handle immigration, the first
time they’ve held a significant edge on the matter in AP-GfK polling. In
October 2010, Republicans held a slight edge over Democrats, 46 percent to 41
percent, on the question of who was more trusted on immigration.
Much of the
increase in support for a path to eventual citizenship has come among
Republicans. A majority in the GOP — 53 percent — now favor the change. That’s
up a striking 22 percentage points from 2010. Seventy-two percent of Democrats
and 55 percent of independents like the idea, similar to 2010.
The findings
suggest that those GOP lawmakers weighing support for eventual legal status for
illegal immigrants could be rewarded politically not just by Democrats and
independents but also by some in their own party as well. This comes amid
soul-searching in the party about how the GOP can broaden its support with
Latinos, who backed Obama over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, 71
percent to 27 percent, in November. Romney received less support from Latinos
than Republican President George W. Bush did. But his slice was on par with
candidates Bob Dole in 1996 and George H.W. Bush in 1992.
Some
Republicans have concluded that backing comprehensive immigration reform with a
pathway to citizenship is becoming a political necessity. Many lawmakers remain
strongly opposed, and it’s far from clear whether Congress will ultimately sign
off on such an approach. But in the Senate, a bipartisan group of lawmakers is
working to draft immigration legislation, and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., a
possible 2016 presidential candidate, has offered proposals that would
ultimately allow illegal immigrants to attain legal status.
One poll
participant, Nick Nanos, 66, of Bellmore, N.Y., said that providing a way for
illegal immigrants to become citizens would respect America’s history as a
nation built by immigrants.
“We act as if
our grandparents got here legally. Don’t want to ask a single Indian about
that,” Nanos said in a follow-up interview. “I don’t think that most of us can
solidly come to a point where our grandparents or great-grandparents or
great-great-grandparents were here legally. What does that even mean?”
Overall, 54
percent in the poll said immigration is an important issue to them personally,
a figure that’s remained steady over the past couple of years.
Republicans
aren’t the only group whose views have shifted significantly. In August of
2010, just 39 percent of seniors favored a path to citizenship. Now, 55 percent
do. Among those without a college degree, support has increased from 45 percent
to 57 percent.
And 59 percent
of whites now favor a way for illegal immigrants to gain citizenship, up from
44 percent in August 2010, and 41 percent in September 2009.
Overall, the
poll found 35 percent strongly favored allowing illegal immigrants to become
citizens over time, while 27 percent favored the idea somewhat. Just 35 percent
of Americans opposed the approach, with 23 percent strongly opposed and 12
percent somewhat opposed. That compared with 48 percent opposed in 2010 and 50
percent in 2009.
The poll also
found strong support for Obama’s decision, announced last summer, to shield as
many as 800,000 immigrants from deportation with conditions. Those affected
would have to be younger than 30, would have to have been brought to the U.S.
before turning 16 and would have to fulfill certain other conditions including
graduation from high school or serving in the military. Illegal immigrants
covered by the order now can apply for work permits. The order bypassed Congress,
which has not passed “DREAM Act” legislation to achieve some of the same goals
for younger illegal immigrants.
Sixty-three
percent of Americans favor that policy, while 20 percent oppose it and 17
percent are in between or unsure, the poll said. The policy is supported by 76
percent of Democrats, significantly more than among Republicans (48 percent) or
independents (59 percent).
Cordel Welch,
41, of Los Angeles, was among those poll participants who believes illegal
immigrants brought to the country as children should be treated differently
from people who came here as adults.
“The ones that
were brought here by their parents, they’re already here, they’re already
established,” Welch said in an interview. “The adults should go through the
process.”
Melissa
Johnson, 40, of Porter, Texas, disagreed.
“I think there
were generations of people that came over here legally, and just because your
parents snuck you in or snuck in while pregnant with you doesn’t give you
automatic citizenship,” she said. “I think they should send them all back
home.”
The Associated
Press-GfK Poll was conducted Jan. 10-14, 2013, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and
Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with
1,004 adults nationwide. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling
error of plus or minus 4 percentage points; the margin is larger for subgroups.
